This article is part of an ongoing, county-by-county, industry overview of the Tri County Area. This article covers Shift Share in Ingham County.

What is Shift Share?

Shift-share analysis is a regional economic analysis technique used to examine the factors contributing to employment or economic growth in a specific region. It helps policymakers and analysts understand how much of a region’s job growth is due to various reasons including national, industrial, or local. Most importantly the “Competitive Effect” indicates how much of overall job change is the result of some unique competitive advantage of the region.^[1]

To define the terms included in this analysis: Net Effect is the sum of the National Effect (reflecting overall job growth driven by the national economy), the Industry Shift Effect (showing how national industry trends impact the region), and the Competitive Effect (indicating how local competitive advantages or disadvantages influence job growth beyond national trends).

Local Shift Share in the County

To analyze Shift Share in Ingham County, we will use the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). NAICS organizes economic activity into a structured hierarchy for businesses based on the type of work they do. Sectors are broad categories used to group similar types of economic activity, classified by two-digit codes. Industries are detailed classifications that focus on the specific business operations within those sectors, organized by six-digit codes.

Figure 1 illustrates the top five sectors by Competitive Effect in Ingham County. Four of the five industries are experiencing a positive Competitive Effect. However, the financial activities sector has a negative Competitive Effect, but a positive National Effect.  This suggests that while the financial sector is growing nationally, it is underperforming or declining in Ingham County.

 Figure 1: Five sectors in Ingham County by Competitive Effect, 2023

 

 Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

According to the July 2023 edition of Michigan’s Labor Market News, the state lost approximately 5,700 jobs in the financial activities sector.^[2] This decline was likely driven by broader economic pressures affecting the industry statewide. Shift Share analysis reveals that although the sector benefited from positive national trends and modest industry wide growth as reflected in the positive National Effect and Industry Shift, it suffered from a negative Competitive Effect. This suggests that Michigan’s financial firms underperformed relative to their national peers.

Between 2020 and 2023, banks in Michigan closed 345 branch offices. This reduction was largely driven by the pandemic, which accelerated the shift toward digital banking, reducing the need for physical locations. Additionally, a major bank merger resulted in the closure of redundant branches, further contributing to the local sector’s contraction.^[3]

Figure 2: Top Five Six-Digit Industries in Ingham County by Competitive Effect, 2018-2023

 

Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

When breaking down NAICS codes, more insight is provided on how each industry in different sectors compares to the U.S. counterpart. Industry trends are shown in Figure 2 and summarized below:

• Administration of General Economic Programs experienced positive growth across all four shift-share components. Notably, Ingham County captured a disproportionately high share of that growth, as reflected in the strong Competitive Effect.
• Vocational Rehabilitation Services showed a negative Industry Shift but a positive Competitive Effect. This means the industry is declining nationally, but local conditions in Ingham County are driving outperformance of the industry at the national level.
• The Elementary and Secondary School industry is declining nationally shown by a negative Industry Shift. But the industry is growing in Ingham County due to local factors, as illustrated by its positive Competitive Effect.